Using forecasting to predict results

<div class="article-banners">
<div id="docs-wmp-link">
<a href="https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/5411234991258-plan" rel="noopener" target="_blank">What's my plan?</a>
</div>
<div class="article-banner" id="suite_pee">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<strong>All Suites</strong>
</td>
<td>Professional, Enterprise, or Enterprise Plus</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="article-banner" id="support_with_explore_pe">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<strong>Support with</strong>
</td>
<td>Explore Professional or Enterprise</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="body">
<p class="p"><em class="ph i">Forecasting</em> is a result manipulation that uses patterns in your data to predict future
results. </p>
<p class="p">Forecasting uses values from date fields with at least two cycles of data. A cycle of data is
a period broken down into multiple values. For example, a year is broken down by month or
week. In auto-mode, the forecast will recognize each year as a cycle, so you need two years of
data to generate a forecast. </p>
<p class="p">This article contains the following topics:</p>
<ul class="ul" id="topic_bmv_xt5_hv__ul_qw1_zyv_b3b">
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#topic_zgd_bzv_b3b">Forecasting basics</a></li>
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#rob_stack_working_topic">How forecasting works (advanced)</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title2" class="topic nested1" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b">
<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title2">Forecasting basics</h2>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">Use this procedure to learn how to add a forecast to your report.</p>
<p class="p"><strong class="ph b">To add a forecast to your report</strong></p>
<ol class="ol" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__ol_z1q_wmv_vw">
<li class="li">In the report builder, create a time-based report. For example, you could add
<strong class="ph b">COUNT(Tickets)</strong> to the <strong class="ph b">Metrics</strong> panel and <strong class="ph b">Ticket created - Year</strong> to
the <strong class="ph b">Columns</strong> panel.<div class="p">
<div class="note note">
<span class="notetitle">Note:</span> The <strong class="ph b">Ticket created - Hour</strong> attribute can't be used for forecasting.</div>
</div>
</li>
<li class="li">Click the result manipulation icon (<img class="image" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_jcq_wmv_vw" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_result_manipulation.png" width="16">), then click <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">In the <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong> menu, check <strong class="ph b">Calculate a forecast on the result</strong><p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_kdm_kbb_hy" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecast.png"></p>
<p class="p">The options to configure forecasting are
displayed.</p>
</li>
<li class="li">
<strong class="ph b">Path</strong> determines whether the forecast is based on the columns, or the rows in your
chart. Whichever you choose must contain a date-based attribute. The path always contains
the date-based attribute for your forecast.<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_z1n_ycb_hy" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecast_path.png"></p>
</li>
<li class="li">Under <strong class="ph b">Method</strong>, choose either <strong class="ph b">Additive trend and multiplicative season</strong> or
<strong class="ph b">Additive trend and additive season</strong>.<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_pzk_zcb_hy" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecast_method.png"></p>
<p class="p">To learn more about the forecasting methods you can use,
see <a class="xref" href="#rob_stack_working_topic">How forecasting works</a>
below.</p>
</li>
<li class="li">Under <strong class="ph b">Values to predict</strong>, choose one of the following:<ul class="ul" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__ul_ujh_wbw_b3b">
<li class="li">
<strong class="ph b">Auto:</strong> Let Explore automatically calculate the optimum number of values ahead
to predict.</li>
<li class="li">
<strong class="ph b">Custom</strong>: Specify the number of values to look ahead. For example, if your
attribute is year based, you'll specify the number of years you want to forecast
ahead.</li>
</ul>
<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_sxc_1db_hy" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecast_values.png"></p>
</li>
<li class="li">Under <strong class="ph b">Values per cycle</strong>, you can configure the number of data points you include
in each cycle. For example, for 12 months of data, you can select 6 values per cycle. If
you select <strong class="ph b">Auto</strong>, Explore calculates the optimum number of values to use.<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_idq_wmv_vw" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/forecasting_4.png" width="250"></p>
</li>
<li class="li">When you are finished, click <strong class="ph b">Apply</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">From the visualization menu (<img class="image" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_bly_4cw_b3b" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_visualization_type.png" width="16">), choose either a bar, column, area, line, or
sparkline chart. Forecast results are not displayed on other chart types. </li>
</ol>
<p class="p">The forecasted porting of the chart is shown in a different style. For example, the
forecasted portion of a line chart is shown as a dotted line, for example:</p>
<p class="p"><img alt="Explore forecasting recipe 2" class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_zgd_bzv_b3b__image_g3g_gfy_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecasting_2.png" width="200"></p>
<div class="p">
<div class="note tip">
<span class="tiptitle">Tip:</span> If you are forecasting based on recurring attributes such as day or month,
the data in that attribute is aggregated and will cause forecasting to fail with the error
message <strong class="ph b">forecast_error_year_missing</strong>. You can resolve this error by including a
year-based attribute in your report also (because year-based attributes do not
recur).<p class="p">For example, if your report contains the attribute <strong class="ph b">Ticket created -
Month</strong> and you have been collecting data for over a year, then the values in this
field are aggregated and you'll see the error message. Add the attribute <strong class="ph b">Ticket
created - Year</strong> also to resolve the error.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title3" class="topic nested1" id="rob_stack_working_topic">
<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title3">How forecasting works (advanced)</h2>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">The forecasting method that Explore uses is based on the <strong class="ph b">Holt winters</strong> model, which
is a <strong class="ph b">triple exponential smoothing</strong>​ that relies on the level, the trend, and the
season of a time series.</p>
<p class="p">Explore, uses two sub-models that fit most use-cases, and also take into account seasonal
variations.</p>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title4" class="topic nested2" id="topic_l2t_3zm_kfb">
<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title4">The AA method</h3>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">The AA (Additive trend and Additive season) model is the default because it is the most
commonly used, and produces the most realistic results.</p>
<p class="p">Initial values are processed with the formula below:</p>
<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_l2t_3zm_kfb__image_e4b_wky_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_aa_1.png"></p>
<p class="p">Then, we can apply the Holt Winters AA model:</p>
<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_l2t_3zm_kfb__image_t44_wky_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_aa_2.png"></p>
</div>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title5" class="topic nested2" id="topic_m2c_jzm_kfb">
<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title5">The AM method</h3>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">The AM (Additive trend and Multiplicative season) model is, in some cases, a time-based
trend.</p>
<p class="p">Initial values are processed with the formula below:</p>
<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_m2c_jzm_kfb__image_djn_xky_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_am_1.png"></p>
<p class="p">Then, we can apply the Holt Winters AM model:</p>
<p class="p"><img class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_m2c_jzm_kfb__image_qhz_xky_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_am_2.png"></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title6" class="topic nested1" id="topic_wjt_kzv_b3b">
<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title6">Periods per cycle</h2>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">In the calculation, we also use the value “Periods per cycle”. It is used to determine the
length of a season, needed to process seasonal indices. In the formulas above, this value is
named “h”.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div aria-labelledby="ariaid-title7" class="topic nested1" id="topic_bhq_lzv_b3b">
<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title7">Smoothing parameters</h2>
<div class="body">
<p class="p">Three other parameters must be defined before the processing of the forecast. They
correspond to smoothing parameters, called “α” for the level, “β” for the trend, “γ” for the
seasonality. In brief, they correspond to a ratio of the importance given to the firsts and
lasts values of the time-based series, and will influence the results of each period. Here
is an example:</p>
<p class="p"><em class="ph i">“The estimated values of alpha, beta and gamma are 0.41, 0.00, and 0.96, respectively.
The value of alpha (0.41) is relatively low, indicating that the estimate of the level at
the current time point is based upon both recent observations and some observations in the
more distant past. The value of beta is 0.00, indicating that the estimate of the slope b
of the trend component is not updated over the time series, and instead is set equal to
its initial value. This makes good intuitive sense, as the level changes quite a bit over
the time series, but the slope b of the trend component remains roughly the same. In
contrast, the value of gamma (0.96) is high, indicating that the estimate of the seasonal
component at the current time point is just based upon very recent observations.”</em></p>
<p class="p">For the three optimization parameters, there is no official algorithm to find the best
ones. This turns into a NP-Complete problem, where the optimization problem is to minimize
the mean squared error of the forecasted results, with 0≤α≤1, 0≤β≤1, 0≤γ≤1.</p>
<p class="p">Thus, Explore has its own algorithm to find in a linear time the best three parameters,
with an accuracy of 0.01.</p>
</div>
</div>
<script id="docs-schema-markup" type="application/ld+json">{
"@context": "https://schema.org",
"@type": "TechArticle",
"@id": "https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408832082970",
"url": "https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408832082970-Using-forecasting-to-predict-results",
"headline": "Using forecasting to predict results",
"description": "You can use forecasting in reports to predict future results based on historical time-based data by configuring forecast settings such as method, values to predict, and cycle length.",
"articleSection": "Performing calculations",
"datePublished": "2021-10-16T03:46:20+00:00",
"dateModified": "2026-01-26T19:08:07+00:00",
"inLanguage": "en-US",
"mainEntityOfPage": {
"@type": "WebPage",
"@id": "https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408832082970"
},
"author": {
"@type": "Organization",
"name": "Zendesk",
"@id": "https://www.zendesk.com"
},
"publisher": {
"@type": "Organization",
"name": "Zendesk",
"@id": "https://www.zendesk.com"
},
"isPartOf": {
"@type": "WebSite",
"name": "Zendesk Help",
"@id": "https://support.zendesk.com/hc/"
},
"about": {
"@type": "SoftwareApplication",
"name": "Zendesk",
"@id": "https://www.zendesk.com",
"softwareAddOn": {
"@type": "SoftwareApplication",
"name": "Explore",
"@id": "https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/sections/4405298856346"
}
}
}</script>