Explore recipe: Forecasting ticket volumes by year

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<p class="p">In this recipe, you'll create a report that uses your existing ticket data to forecast an <strong class="ph b">estimate</strong> of how many tickets you'll receive in future years. To be able to forecast results, Explore needs at least two cycles of data. A cycle is a period of time broken down into multiple periods. For example, if you are reporting by year, you'll need at least two years of data to generate a forecast.</p>
<p class="p">This article contains the following sections:</p>
<ul class="ul" id="Explore_recipe_forecasting_ticket_volume__ul_scf_ztr_xhb">
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#topic_ih4_hkw_5hb">What you'll need</a></li>
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#topic_w4s_15r_xhb">Creating the report</a></li>
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#topic_ly1_pfy_xhb">Exploring forecasting options</a></li>
<li class="li"><a class="xref" href="#topic_elx_lpx_xhb">Next steps</a></li>
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<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title2">What you'll need</h2>
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<p class="p">Skill level: <em class="ph i">Advanced</em></p>
<p class="p">Time required: <em class="ph i">25 minutes</em></p>
<ul class="ul" id="topic_ih4_hkw_5hb__ul_kxt_vcl_4fb">
<li class="li" dir="ltr">Zendesk Explore Professional or Enterprise</li>
<li class="li" dir="ltr">Editor or Admin permissions (see <a class="xref" href="https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408836002970-Adding-users-to-Explore" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Giving agents access to Explore</a>)</li>
<li class="li" dir="ltr">Zendesk Guide with Answer Bot</li>
<li class="li">A blank Explore report using the <strong class="ph b">Support: Tickets</strong> dataset. For help creating a new report, see <a class="xref" href="https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408821589530-Creating-queries" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Creating reports</a>.</li>
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<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title3">Creating the report</h2>
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<p class="p"><strong class="ph b">To create the report</strong></p>
<ol class="ol" id="topic_w4s_15r_xhb__ol_g1r_pcy_xhb">
<li class="li">In the <strong class="ph b">Metrics</strong> panel of your blank report, click <strong class="ph b">Add</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">From the list of metrics, choose <strong class="ph b">Tickets</strong> &gt; <strong class="ph b">Tickets</strong>, then click <strong class="ph b">Apply</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">In the <strong class="ph b">Columns</strong> panel, click <strong class="ph b">Add</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">From the list of attributes, choose <strong class="ph b">Time - Ticket created</strong> &gt; <strong class="ph b">Ticket created - Year</strong>, then click <strong class="ph b">Apply</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">Explore generates a chart showing the number of tickets created each year since you began collecting data. From the visualization type menu (<img alt="" class="image" id="topic_w4s_15r_xhb__image_omn_3dy_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_visualization_type.png">), change the chart type to <strong class="ph b">Line</strong>. You'll end up with something that looks like the following:
<p class="p"><img alt="" class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_w4s_15r_xhb__image_iqm_ydy_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecasting_1.png" width="850"></p>
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<li class="li">Now, you'll add the forecast to your chart. From the result manipulation menu (<img alt="" class="image" id="topic_w4s_15r_xhb__image_q12_f2y_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_result_manipulation.png">), choose <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">In the <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong> menu, select <strong class="ph b">Calculate a forecast on the result</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">Leave all other values in the menu at their default values. Explore regenerates the chart showing one year into the future. The forecasted portion of the line chart is shown as a dotted line, for example:
<p class="p"><img alt="" class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_w4s_15r_xhb__image_g3g_gfy_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecasting_2.png" width="200"></p>
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<li class="li">Click the <strong class="ph b">New report</strong> text, then enter a name for the report like <strong class="ph b">Ticket volume forecast</strong>.</li>
<li class="li">Save your report.</li>
</ol>
<p class="p">You've now finished creating a simple forecasting example. In the next section, you'll dig a bit deeper into the forecasting options and customize the chart you just created.</p>
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<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title4">Exploring forecasting options</h2>
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<p class="p">In this section, you'll start with the ticket volume forecast chart you created and explore how the different forecasting options affect it.</p>
<p class="p"><strong class="ph b">To open the forecasting menu</strong></p>
<ol class="ol" id="topic_ly1_pfy_xhb__ol_zqp_3gy_xhb">
<li class="li">Open the <strong class="ph b">Ticket volume forecast</strong> report you created previously.</li>
<li class="li">From the result manipulation menu (<img alt="" class="image" id="topic_ly1_pfy_xhb__image_ayn_jgy_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_result_manipulation.png">), choose <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong>.</li>
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<p class="p">The <strong class="ph b">Forecast</strong> menu contains the following options:</p>
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<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title5">Calculate a forecast on the results</h3>
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<p class="p">Select this checkbox to turn on forecasting.</p>
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<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title6">Path</h3>
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<p class="p">You can calculate the forecast based on the columns, or the rows in your chart. However, whichever you choose must contain a date-based attribute. In the example in this article, you added the <strong class="ph b">Ticket created - Year</strong> attribute to the <strong class="ph b">Columns</strong> panel, so in the <strong class="ph b">Path</strong> drop-down list, select <strong class="ph b">On rows</strong>.</p>
<p class="p">If you want to test how the path works, try dragging the <strong class="ph b">Ticket created - Year</strong> attribute from the <strong class="ph b">Columns</strong> panel into the <strong class="ph b">Rows</strong> panel. Then, change the path to <strong class="ph b">On rows</strong>. You'll end up with a table (instead of a chart) showing the ticket volume by year with the forecast.</p>
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<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title7">Method</h3>
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<p class="p">The <strong class="ph b">Method</strong> drop-down list selects the type of calculation that Explore uses to calculate the forecast. You can choose from two methods, each of which might return different results.</p>
<p class="p">Explore uses the Holt Winters model as a forecasting method. Explore uses two sub-models that fit most use-cases, the AA and AM models which also take into account seasonal variations. If you want to read more about Holt Winters and the two models, see <a class="xref" href="https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408832082970-Using-forecasting-to-predict-results" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Using forecasting to predict results</a>.</p>
<p class="p">For this example, choose <strong class="ph b">Additive trend and additive season</strong>.</p>
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<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title8">Values to predict</h3>
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<p class="p">Choose the number of values that you want to predict. In our example, when this was set to <strong class="ph b">Auto</strong>, Explore looked one year ahead.</p>
<p class="p">Choose <strong class="ph b">Custom</strong> and then set <strong class="ph b">Specify the number of values to predict</strong> to <strong class="ph b">5</strong>. This will make the forecast look five years ahead.</p>
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<h3 class="title topictitle3" id="ariaid-title9">Values per cycle</h3>
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<p class="p">Finally, this setting configures how many forecasts to make over each time period. In our example, when this was set to <strong class="ph b">Auto</strong>, Explore forecast one result each year. Increasing the values per cycle increases the detail of your forecast.</p>
<p class="p">Choose <strong class="ph b">Custom</strong> and then set <strong class="ph b">Specify the number of values per cycle your data contains</strong> to <strong class="ph b">6</strong>. This will take 6 forecasts throughout each year.</p>
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<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title10">Finishing up</h2>
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<p class="p">You'll end up with a chart that looks something like this example:</p>
<p class="p"><img alt="" class="image img-screenshot" id="topic_bpm_fty_xhb__image_ayf_nty_xhb" src="https://zen-marketing-documentation.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/en/Explore_forecasting_3.png" width="700"></p>
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<h2 class="title topictitle2" id="ariaid-title11">Next steps</h2>
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<p class="p">For in-depth information about how forecasting works in Explore, see <a class="xref" href="https://support.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4408832082970-Using-forecasting-to-predict-results" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Using forecasting to predict results</a>.</p>
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